Beliefs, done intentionally
Find out what you're actually good at predicting
Write down what you think will happen — with a probability and a date. When the future arrives, judge it. Portend keeps score honestly, so your beliefs get better with practice.
No markets. No audience. Just you and your track record.
A quiet practice, kept simple
Write it down
A question, a probability, a resolve-by date. Capture a belief in seconds — from the app or from a conversation with your AI.
Judge it honestly
When the future arrives, resolve it: yes, no, or ambiguous. You said 80%. Did it happen?
See your calibration
Brier scores and a calibration curve, sliced by topic and time horizon — so you learn where your judgment is sharp and where it drifts.
Works with your AI
Portend ships an MCP server, so Claude — or any MCP-capable assistant — can log a prediction mid-conversation, update a probability when your view shifts, and pull up your calibration when you ask how good your track record really is.
Part of Done Intentionally
Portend is one of a family of small apps for living intentionally — tasks, friends, time, and beliefs, sharing one account and connected to each other and to your AI.
Tasks, done intentionally
Friends, done intentionally
Time, done intentionally
Beliefs, done intentionally